Pakistan is grappling with catastrophic floods that have swept through farmlands and industrial hubs, inflicting billions of dollars in losses and threatening both food supplies and fragile economic recovery.
The government had entered 2026 with hopes of 4.2% growth, expecting farming and manufacturing to rebound under a $7 billion IMF programme. Instead, record monsoon rains since late June—exacerbated by dam releases from India—have submerged wide stretches of Punjab and Sindh.
Crops Underwater
Satellite data shows the scale of the disaster. GEOGLAM, a global crop monitoring initiative, estimates more than 220,000 hectares of rice fields have been submerged between August 1 and September 16. Punjab, the country’s agricultural powerhouse, has seen 1.8 million acres drowned.
“Half of rice and 60% of cotton and maize crops are destroyed,” said Khalid Bath, head of the Pakistan Farmers Association, putting estimated losses at up to Rs1 trillion.
Former Agriculture University Faisalabad vice chancellor Iqrar Ahmad Khan warned that nearly 10% of national crops may be wiped out, with vegetables almost obliterated in some districts. Wheat sowing—the backbone of Pakistan’s food supply—is now under serious threat.
“Food insecurity will follow, not just higher prices,” he cautioned.
Economic Pressure
Planning Minister Ahsan Iqbal admitted GDP growth would take a hit, with full damage estimates due within weeks. The central bank has revised growth projections toward the lower end of its 3.25–4.25% range, warning of a “temporary but sharp supply shock.”
But market signals are already clear. Wheat, sugar, onion, and tomato prices have spiked, driving inflation to its highest level in over two years.
The IMF said its upcoming review will assess if Pakistan’s fiscal plans and emergency reserves can cope. Critics argue policymakers are underestimating the damage. “The floods could widen the current account deficit by $7 billion—worse than 2022,” said former finance minister Hafeez Pasha.
Factories Hit, Exports at Risk
Industrial zones have also been left crippled. In Sialkot, workshops producing textiles, surgical instruments, and sporting goods remain flooded. A shortage of cotton threatens the textile industry—Pakistan’s largest export earner—while rice exporters fear losing ground to India.
“We had 400 acres of cotton, but just 90 survived,” said Multan farmer Rab Nawaz.
Human Toll Mounts
The National Disaster Management Authority reports more than 1,000 deaths and 2.5 million displaced since late June. In Lahore, entire neighbourhoods were submerged.
“We’ve been sleeping on the roadside for three days,” said rickshaw driver Mohammad Arif, who lost his home while scrambling to save his only source of income.
