With South Africa’s crushing of New Zealand in Pune last night, the competition for the coveted semi-final position in the 2023 ICC World Cup in India has undoubtedly heated up. The crushing defeat has damaged New Zealand’s Net Run Rate (NRR) and raised the possibility of Pakistan qualifying.

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There are two scenarios in which Pakistan can ensure its qualification. Here’s a look at the sequence of events that need to unfold in Pakistan’s favor. (Cue the “Qudrat ka nizam” chants!)

Eliminate New Zealand

Pakistan is now only one victory away from pulling even with New Zealand. Both teams will have eight points from eight games if the Shaheens win their next game against the Kiwis. The genuine test for Pakistan will come in their last league game at Eden Gardens against the bottom-dwelling English team.

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Pakistan’s route to the semi-finals will become considerably clearer if they triumph. But if they lose, there’s no guarantee they’ll make it to the semi-finals. When NRR is applied, Pakistan must not only widen their margin of victory but also hope that Sri Lanka hands the Blackcaps a humiliating defeat.

Aussie Collapse

For the men in green, the second alternative is to win one game and hope that Australia loses all of their remaining matches against Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and England to stay at eight points, or they can lose two games with significant margins of defeat to fall behind Pakistan in terms of net run rate.

In either case, Pakistan would still like Afghanistan and Sri Lanka to lose one or two of their remaining games by sizable margins in order for their Net Run Rate to stay below Pakistan’s. Pakistan needs to win both of their most recent games.