Pakistan’s GDP growth rate is expected to reach 2.5 per cent in 2024 by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), after contracting to a negative 0.5 per cent in 2023.
According to the Fund’s most recent study, “World Economic Outlook 2023, Navigating Global Divergences,” inflation will be 23.6% in 2024 compared to 29.2% in 2023. However, compared to 29.4% in 2023, the research projects that consumer prices will be 17.5% at the end of 2024.
In contrast to a negative 0.7 per cent in 2023, a negative 1.8 per cent current account balance is predicted for 2024.
According to the Fund’s projections, Pakistan’s unemployment rate will drop from 8.5 percent in 2023 to 8 per cent in 2024. Pakistan’s general government net lending/borrowing is expected to be minus 7.6 per cent in 2024 by the Fund, down from negative 8.1 percent in 2023.
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According to the Fund, Brazil’s recent decision to set a 3 percent inflation rate target for 2025 and beyond that will be continuous rather than calendar year is a specific illustration of how operational effectiveness and communications strategy have improved, which has helped to lower uncertainty and improve the effectiveness of monetary policy.
Other instances of enhanced communication tactics are the steps taken by the central banks of Uruguay and Pakistan since 2020 to preemptively publish the dates of their predetermined monetary policy meetings.
According to the Fund, there will be a slowdown in global growth from 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.0 percent in 2023 and 2.9 percent in 2024.
As of July 2023, the World Economic Outlook updated its prognosis for 2024, which is 0.1 percentage points lower than the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 percent.
In the context of stronger-than-expected US momentum but weaker-than-expected growth in the euro area, a slowdown in advanced economies is anticipated, with growth rates dropping from 2.6 percent in 2022 to 1.5 percent in 2023 and 1.4 percent in 2024. It is anticipated that growth in emerging markets and developing economies will fall moderately, from 4.1 percent in 2022 to 4.0 percent in 2023 and 2024, with a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point in 2024 to account for China’s housing sector crisis.
The medium-term growth estimate for the world is 3.1%, the lowest in decades, and there is little chance that countries will be able to catch up to improved living standards. It is anticipated that global inflation will gradually decrease, from 8.7% in 2022 to 6.9% in 2023 and 5.8% in 2024.
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The projections for 2023 and 2024, however, have been revised upward by 0.1 and 0.6 percentage points, respectively, and it is generally not anticipated that inflation will return to target until 2025.
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the COVID-19 epidemic, the world is still recovering slowly and unevenly. It is too soon to get complacent, notwithstanding the economy’s resiliency earlier this year, with a modest comeback and progress toward lowering inflation from last year’s peaks.
Particularly in emerging markets and developing nations, economic activity still lags behind its pre-pandemic trajectory, and regional differences are growing.
The recovery is being hampered by a number of factors. Some are a result of the pandemic’s long-term effects, the conflict in Ukraine, and the growing geoeconomic fragmentation. Some are more cyclical in character, such as the consequences of tighter monetary policy to lower inflation, the removal of fiscal support in the face of excessive debt, and extreme weather occurrences.
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