Suspension of 1960 treaty raises alarm in Islamabad as Delhi explores major infrastructure projects on shared rivers
New Delhi/Islamabad (Reuters) – In a move that risks escalating already fraught relations between the nuclear-armed neighbours, India is weighing plans to significantly increase the amount of water it diverts from rivers that flow into Pakistan, following a deadly attack in Kashmir that New Delhi blames on Islamabad.
The Indian government has suspended its participation in the decades-old Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), shortly after 26 civilians were killed in the Pahalgam area of Indian-administered Kashmir. While India termed the attack an act of terror sponsored by Pakistan, Islamabad has denied any involvement. Despite a recently agreed ceasefire, the treaty remains in limbo.
Officials in New Delhi confirmed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has directed the fast-tracking of water infrastructure projects on the Chenab, Jhelum, and Indus rivers — key components of the Indus river system allocated mainly to Pakistan under the treaty.
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One of the most ambitious projects under consideration is the expansion of the Ranbir Canal, which carries water from the Chenab River. Plans could see the canal lengthened to 120 km and its capacity more than tripled, from 40 to 150 cubic meters per second. Though construction could take years, experts warn the project signals a long-term strategic shift.
Pakistan: Treaty Suspension is “Unlawful”
Pakistan has officially contested India’s decision, with Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar stating before lawmakers that Islamabad considers the treaty still legally binding. The government has already written to Indian authorities and is preparing to pursue legal remedies through international platforms, including the World Bank, the Permanent Court of Arbitration, and potentially the International Court of Justice.
Islamabad has warned that any unilateral action to alter the water flow would be viewed as an “act of war,” underscoring the existential importance of the Indus system, which supports 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture and nearly all of its hydroelectric power.
A Fragile Framework Under Threat
The Indus Waters Treaty, brokered by the World Bank in 1960, is widely regarded as one of the most resilient international water-sharing agreements, having endured multiple wars and crises between India and Pakistan. However, Delhi now argues that the treaty requires renegotiation to reflect changing demographics and India’s growing demand for hydroenergy.
India has identified at least five potential water storage projects, with four located on tributaries of the Chenab and Jhelum, according to internal documents from the Ministry of Power. These would mark India’s first foray into large-scale water storage within the Indus system.
Regional and Global Concerns
Water security experts warn that weaponizing shared water resources could destabilize the region further. “As regional geopolitical tensions deepen, some in India worry this move could set a precedent for China to restrict India’s water supply from rivers originating in Tibet,” said David Michel, of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Pakistan’s Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb echoed international concerns, telling Reuters, “Water should not be weaponized. We don’t even want to consider scenarios where this treaty is not reinstated.”
