Asteroid 2024 YR4, once considered the highest-impact risk to Earth, is now drawing renewed attention as updated NASA data indicates a slightly increased chance of it striking the moon in 2032. According to new trajectory estimates, the asteroid has a 4.3% probability of impacting the lunar surface on December 22, 2032, up from a previous estimate of 3.8%.
NASA clarified that such fluctuations are routine as new observational data refines the predicted paths of near-Earth objects. The agency also emphasized that a potential impact on the moon would not affect its orbit or pose any threat to Earth.
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First discovered on December 27, 2024, asteroid 2024 YR4 measures approximately 53 to 67 meters in length, comparable to a 10-storey building. The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) captured the asteroid in May 2025, using its Near-Infrared Camera to collect vital data. This enabled researchers, led by Andy Rivkin of the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, to improve the asteroid’s orbital predictions by nearly 20%.
In early 2025, the asteroid’s projected impact risk on Earth spiked to 3.1%, raising global concern due to its potential for regional-scale damage. Simulations suggested that if it had entered Earth’s atmosphere, it could have caused widespread effects across multiple continents. However, further observations reduced this risk to 0.004%, and NASA officially declared an “all clear” in February 2025.
While the current focus is on a potential moon impact, astronomers maintain that there is no threat to human life. Dr. Pawan Kumar, formerly of the Indian Institute of Astrophysics, stated that any debris from a lunar impact would likely disintegrate before reaching Earth. Scientists continue to monitor 2024 YR4, but its revised trajectory confirms there is no danger to the planet.
