Pakistan has missed its wheat production target for the Rabi season 2024–25, with the output estimated at 28.42 million tons. This figure is 10 percent lower than last year’s production and significantly below the official target of 33.58 million tons. The wheat cultivation area also fell short, reaching only 9.1 million hectares against the planned 10.368 million hectares.
This development was confirmed during a high-level meeting of the Federal Committee on Agriculture (FCA) held on April 24, 2025. The meeting was chaired by Federal Minister for National Food Security & Research Rana Tanveer Hussain and Minister of State Malik Rasheed Ahmad Khan. Senior officials from provincial agriculture departments, the State Bank of Pakistan, and other relevant institutions were also present.
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Despite the wheat shortfall, vegetable production during the Rabi season showed positive results. Onion output increased by 15.7 percent to 2.7 million tons, even though the cultivated area was reduced by 17.3 percent. Tomato production rose by 8.8 percent to 654,000 tons, supported by a 4.8 percent increase in cultivated area. Potato production also saw a significant rise, reaching 9.3 million tons from 0.37 million hectares, marking an 11.7 percent increase over the previous season.
Looking ahead to the Kharif season 2025–26, the FCA has set ambitious targets for major crops. Cotton production is aimed at 10.18 million bales from 2.2 million hectares, rice at 9.17 million tons from 3 million hectares, sugarcane at 80.3 million tons from 1.1 million hectares, and maize at 9.7 million tons from 1.5 million hectares. Targets were also set for pulses like mung and mash, as well as for chilies.
However, the upcoming season faces significant challenges due to adverse weather conditions. The Pakistan Meteorological Department reported a 39 percent below-average rainfall from January to April 2025, with a sharp 60 percent deficit in April, particularly in Sindh and Balochistan. These drier-than-normal conditions are expected to continue into May, potentially affecting crop sowing in regions such as Northern Punjab, KP, and Northern Balochistan. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal, although rainfall may improve starting in June.
Water availability for the Kharif season is projected at 60.5 million acre-feet at the canal heads. The FCA highlighted the importance of efficient water use and timely availability of agricultural inputs. On the positive side, sufficient seed supplies for rice and maize have been confirmed, and agricultural credit allocations for 2024–25 are set to increase by 16 percent, reaching Rs. 2,572 billion, compared to Rs. 2,216 billion disbursed last year.
