Foreign exchange reserves held by the State Bank of Pakistan are expected to reach a new record level by the end of the current calendar year, reflecting improving external sector stability.
According to a report by Topline Securities, SBP’s foreign exchange reserves are projected to cross $20.2 billion by December 2026, marking an all-time high. At this level, reserves would be sufficient to cover nearly three months of imports, providing a stronger buffer against external shocks.
The brokerage house noted that this forecast does not factor in any potential issuance of Panda bonds or Eurobonds. Any external bond issuance during the year could further strengthen Pakistan’s foreign exchange position and push reserves beyond current estimates.
On the external account, analysts expect the current account deficit to remain contained in the lower range of 0 to 1 per cent of GDP. The central bank anticipates imports to grow by around 8 per cent in FY26, while exports are projected to decline by about 6 per cent during the same period.
Overall, the outlook suggests improving reserve adequacy and relative stability in Pakistan’s external sector, supported by prudent monetary management and controlled current account dynamics.
