Pakistan’s Inflation Drops to Lowest Level in 20 Months

According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), year-over-year inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to 23.1 percent in February 2024 from 28.3 percent in the previous month and 31.5 percent in February 2023.

During the first eight months of the current fiscal year (July-February), the average CPI was 27.96 percent, which is lower than the 26.19 percent recorded during the same period in the previous fiscal year.

Comparing February 2024 to the previous month, which had a rise of 1.8 percent, and February 2023, which saw an increase of 4.3 percent, no change was seen month over month.

In February 2024, the annual percentage rate of CPI inflation in Urban areas increased to 24.9 percent, up from 30.2 percent in the previous month and 28.8 percent in February 2023. It grew to 0.2 percent in February 2024 on a month-over-month basis, up from 1.8 percent in the previous month and 4.5 percent in February 2023.

In February 2024, the CPI inflation rate in rural areas jumped to 20.5 percent year over year, up from 25.7 percent the previous month and 35.6 percent in February 2023. Month over month, it dropped to 0.3 percent in February 2024 after a 4.0 percent gain in February 2023 and a 1.9 percent increase in the preceding month.

In February 2024, the YoY increase in the Sensitive Price Index (SPI) was 30.4 percent, up from 36.2 percent the previous month and 33.6 percent in February 2023. In February 2024, it fell by 0.8 percent on a month-over-month basis, after rising by 2.0% in the previous month and by 3.7 percent in February 2023.

In February 2024, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) experienced a YoY increase of 18.7 percent, up from 27.0 percent the previous month and 36.4 percent in February 2023. In February 2024, it grew by 1.1 percent on a month-over-month basis, compared to 1.5 percent in the previous month and 8.2 percent in the same month the previous year, or February 2023.

Core inflation (NFNE)

As determined by non-food, non-energy urban consumption rose to 15.5 percent in February 2024 on a year-over-year basis, up from 17.8 percent the month before and 17.1 percent the previous February.

In February 2024, it climbed by 0.3 percent on a month-over-month basis, compared to 1.1 percent in the previous month and 2.2 percent in the same month last year, or February 2023.

According to non-food, non-energy measures, rural areas saw YoY increases in February 2024 of 21.9 percent, up from 24.6 percent the month before and 21.5 percent in February 2023. In February 2024, it grew by 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis, compared to 1.2 percent in the previous month and 2.6 percent in the same month the previous year, or February 2023.

Core inflation (Trimmed)

Urban, as measured by a 20 percent weighted trimmed mean, rose on a year-over-year basis to 16.0 percent in February 2024 from 22.1 percent the month before and 25.1 percent in February 2023. In February 2024, it grew by 0.3 percent on a month-over-month basis, compared to 1.0 percent in the previous month and 2.9 percent in the same month the previous year, or February 2023.

Utilizing a 20 percent weighted trimmed mean, rural areas had a YoY increase to 21.3 percent in February 2024 from 25.8 percent the month before and 31.6 percent in February 2023. In February 2024, it grew to 0.4 percent on a MoM basis, up from 1.2 percent in the previous month and 3.9 percent in the same month the previous year, or February 2023.

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