Islamabad: At its fourth straight meeting, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) decided to maintain the benchmark interest rate at a record 22%.
The specifics indicate that the bank made this decision because it expected inflation to decrease significantly in the second half of the fiscal year. The majority of independent economists and analysts had projected that the central bank would keep the present interest rate in place despite a spike in November’s inflation statistics. The impact of the increase in petrol prices last month was acknowledged by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).
In a prior attempt to obtain a USD 3 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) as part of a reform program meant to stabilize the economy, the SBP hiked the policy rate to 22% in an off-cycle meeting on June 26.
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Pakistan’s economy has been struggling with ongoing high price pressures; since June 2022, the country’s monthly consumer price index-based inflation has been above 20%, reaching a record high of 38% in May of this year. Although the IMF and the SBP had both promised that inflation would moderate in the current fiscal year, November’s inflation rate was 29.2% as a result of the government’s increase in energy prices to achieve reform goals.
The Central Bank highlighted that, by the conclusion of the fiscal year 2024–2025, the existing monetary policy stance is regarded as appropriate to attain the inflation objective of 5% to 7%. Furthermore, the SBP anticipated a small rebound in real GDP for the current fiscal year; first-quarter projections show 2.1% year-over-year growth, up from 1% in the previous year.
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