UN Warns Next 5 Years Could be Warmest Ever Recorded
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) of the United Nations has issued a warning, stating that the combined impact of El Nino and greenhouse gases will lead to a significant rise in temperatures. They have emphasized the need for preparedness in the face of these changes.
According to the WMO, the next five years are projected to be the warmest period ever recorded. They have expressed a 98-percent likelihood that at least one of the upcoming five years, as well as the entire five-year period, will set new records for warmth.
The WMO further explained that the combination of greenhouse gases and the natural weather phenomenon El Nino will result in soaring temperatures from 2023 to 2027. The Secretary-General of the WMO, Petteri Taalas, highlighted that a warming El Nino is anticipated in the near future, which will interact with human-induced climate change to push global temperatures into uncharted territories.
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El Nino and its counterpart La Nina are climate patterns that contribute to extreme weather events worldwide. El Nino typically elevates average global temperatures, while La Nina has a cooling effect.
Taalas cautioned that the WMO’s alarm serves as a reminder that we will increasingly exceed the 1.5°C temperature threshold on a temporary basis, with significant consequences for health, food security, water management, and the environment. Therefore, preparedness is essential.
The release of this new report precedes the World Meteorological Congress, scheduled from May 22 to June 2. During the congress, discussions will focus on strengthening weather and climate services to support adaptation to climate change.
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The WMO predictions indicate that the annual mean global near-surface temperature for each year between 2023 and 2027 is expected to be 1.1°C to 1.8°C higher than the average from 1850 to 1900. This period is considered a baseline due to its representation of the pre-industrial era before human activities significantly increased greenhouse gas emissions.
Furthermore, the WMO forecasts that Arctic warming will be more than three times greater than the global average over the next five northern hemisphere winters. Increased rainfall is anticipated in the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska, and northern Siberia, while the Amazon and certain regions of Australia may experience reduced rainfall.
In 2022, the global mean temperature was 1.15°C higher than the average from 1850 to 1900. The WMO states that the hottest eight years ever recorded occurred between 2015 and 2022, with 2016 being the warmest year on record.
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