Pakistan’s urea sales are expected to drop to their lowest level in more than six years in January 2026, following heavy advance buying in December, reduced manufacturer discounts, and weaker seasonal demand, according to research by Topline Securities.
The research note shows a sharp decline in fertilizer sales on both a month-on-month and year-on-year basis. At the same time, inventories have risen as production remained steady despite slowing demand.
Urea sales for January 2026 are projected at 218,000 tons, marking a 75-month low. This represents a steep 84% decline from December and a 51% drop compared to January last year. The slowdown comes after exceptional advance purchases in December 2025, when higher discounts drove sales to a record high of 1.36 million tons.
In January, fertilizer producers scaled back discounts. Engro Fertilizers (EFERT) offered discounts of Rs. 100–150 per bag, down from Rs. 400 per bag in December. Fauji Fertilizer Company (FFC), which had offered Rs. 150–200 per bag in December, provided no discounts in January, according to market checks.
As a result, urea inventories are expected to rise to about 630,000 tons by the end of January 2026, up from 320,000 tons in December. The build-up reflects a return to normal levels after December’s unusually strong sales, as discounts were reduced, Rabi season demand eased, and production continued without major cuts.
Among producers, Engro Fertilizers is expected to hold the largest inventory at 264,000 tons, followed by Fatima Group with 220,000 tons, and Fauji Fertilizer Company with 90,000 tons.
Company-wise sales data points to a sharp slowdown across the sector. EFERT’s urea sales are projected to fall to 24,000 tons, down 96% month-on-month and 77% year-on-year. FFC’s sales are expected at 175,000 tons, reflecting a 54% monthly decline and a 10% annual drop, while Fatima Group’s sales are estimated at just 7,000 tons, down 97% from December and 93% compared to last year.
Sales of DAP fertilizer are also expected to remain weak. Total DAP offtake in January 2026 is likely to be around 34,000 tons, down 58% month-on-month and 45% year-on-year.
FFC and EFERT are expected to record DAP sales of 20,000 tons and 11,000 tons, respectively. Closing DAP inventory is projected to stand at about 275,000 tons by the end of January 2026.
