Pakistan’s cotton industry has challenged the Federal Committee on Agriculture’s (FCA) cotton production forecast for the 2026-27 season, calling the official estimates unrealistic and warning that inaccurate projections could damage the country’s reputation in international cotton markets.
The FCA has estimated national cotton production at 9.643 million bales for the upcoming season. The forecast includes 5 million bales from Punjab, 4.042 million bales from Sindh, and approximately 604,250 bales from Balochistan.
Cotton Ginners Forum Chairman Ehsan ul Haq disputed the projections, arguing that the expected provincial yields are inconsistent with actual farming conditions. He questioned the committee’s estimate of 2.72 bales per acre for Sindh, compared with 1.60 bales per acre for Punjab and only 1 bale per acre for Balochistan.
According to Haq, Balochistan has historically achieved the country’s highest cotton yields due to its favorable climate, lower pollution levels, and relatively limited sugarcane cultivation. He added that cotton produced in the province typically sells at a premium of Rs. 500 to Rs. 700 per maund compared with cotton from Punjab and Sindh.
Haq also highlighted the FCA’s previous forecasting inaccuracies. He noted that the committee had projected cotton production of 10.18 million bales for the 2025-26 season, while actual output reached only 5.524 million bales. Punjab produced 2.718 million bales against an official estimate of 5.553 million bales, while Sindh recorded 2.807 million bales compared with the projected 4.042 million bales.
He urged the FCA to prepare future crop estimates using comprehensive field surveys instead of relying on assumptions. Haq warned that unrealistic production forecasts could disrupt procurement planning, influence import and export decisions, distort market expectations, and negatively affect Pakistan’s credibility in global cotton trade.
