The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released updated economic projections for Pakistan, including revised revenue estimates and higher petroleum levy targets for the upcoming fiscal year.
According to the IMF assessment, the government is expected to further increase fuel-related revenue collection. While the petroleum levy target for the current fiscal year was set at Rs. 1.468 trillion, actual collections are now projected to reach Rs. 1.546 trillion. For the next fiscal year, petroleum levy revenues are estimated to rise further to Rs. 1.727 trillion, signaling continued dependence on fuel taxation.
Pakistan’s overall tax collection target for the next fiscal year is projected at Rs. 15.264 trillion as part of ongoing IMF-backed fiscal reforms.
The IMF estimates that direct taxes could generate around Rs. 7.413 trillion, while sales tax collections may reach Rs. 4.727 trillion. Revenue from federal excise duty is projected at Rs. 1.043 trillion, and customs duties are expected to contribute approximately Rs. 1.651 trillion.
Gas surcharge revenues are also likely to increase. Against the current fiscal year’s target of Rs. 90 billion, collections may rise to Rs. 134 billion, with further growth to Rs. 151 billion expected next year.
On the non-tax side, Pakistan is expected to collect Rs. 3.702 trillion during the current fiscal year, slightly above the original target of Rs. 3.681 trillion. However, non-tax revenues for the next fiscal year are projected to decline to Rs. 2.768 trillion.
The IMF report estimates Pakistan’s total public expenditure for the upcoming fiscal year at Rs. 26.423 trillion, including federal government spending of nearly Rs. 16.592 trillion.
Debt servicing is expected to remain the largest area of expenditure, with interest payments projected at Rs. 7.824 trillion. Of this amount, domestic debt servicing may account for Rs. 6.652 trillion, while foreign debt repayments are estimated at Rs. 1.107 trillion.
Meanwhile, defence spending for the current fiscal year is expected to remain slightly below budget estimates at Rs. 2.564 trillion compared to the allocated Rs. 2.575 trillion. For the next fiscal year, the defence budget is projected to increase to approximately Rs. 2.665 trillion.
The IMF projections underline Pakistan’s growing reliance on taxation measures, particularly fuel levies, alongside mounting debt servicing obligations as the government prepares the next federal budget under IMF programme commitments.
