Inflation to Remain High and May Rise Further
Given Pakistan’s continued economic crisis, inflation is predicted to stay high and possibly even increase.
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The Ministry of Finance has issued a warning that inflation is anticipated to remain high due to market frictions brought on by the relative demand and supply disparity for necessities, exchange rate depreciation, and recent increases in the administered prices of gasoline and diesel. Floods have a lag impact that has delayed the recovery of production losses, particularly for important crops.
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As a result, there has been a continuing scarcity of necessities. The second round impact could cause inflation to increase even more. Uncertainty in the political and economic spheres is another reason why prices may be increasing. Because of the increased economic unpredictability brought on by the stabilization program’s delay, inflationary expectations have stayed high.
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Inflationary expectations are not abating in defiance of SBP’s contractionary monetary policy. Furthermore, purchasing in bulk during Ramadan may result in a demand-supply imbalance and an increase in the cost of necessities. However, the government is aware of this and has already enlisted the support of all provincial administrations to guarantee a steady supply of necessities.
It’s possible that inflation in March will stay above what was seen in February. By the conclusion of the current fiscal year, it is anticipated that recent monetary policy restraints and efforts at fiscal consolidation, along with administrative, policy, and relief measures, will lessen the inflationary pressure.
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This year’s wheat harvest is predicted to be negatively impacted by delayed rains and early heat surges. Regarding the industrial sector, the ministry admitted that the ongoing monetary tightening and fiscal consolidation may cause the domestic economy additional short-term pain, resulting in domestic industrial output falling below its neutral capacity level.
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