The Pakistani rupee is expected to remain under pressure in the coming months, with a majority of market participants forecasting the dollar to stay above Rs. 285, according to a survey conducted by Topline Securities. Despite this outlook, the rupee has shown strong recent performance, appreciating for 145 consecutive days—around five months—against the US dollar, with the interbank rate currently standing at Rs. 278 per dollar.
According to the survey results, 59% of respondents expect the PKR/USD parity to remain above 285, while 31% anticipate the exchange rate to stay in the 280–285 range. Only 10% of participants expect the rupee to trade between 275 and 280, indicating a generally cautious sentiment toward near-term currency stability.
The survey also highlights ongoing inflation concerns in the economy. Around 51% of respondents expect inflation to remain above 9% over the next 12 months, while 23% believe it will stay within the 7%–9% range. A smaller segment of participants expects a further easing in inflationary pressure, reflecting mixed expectations about price stability.
On monetary policy, market sentiment suggests a relatively tight stance over the longer term. For December 2026, 59% of respondents expect the policy rate to remain above the current level of 10.5%, while 29% anticipate it will remain unchanged. Only 6% expect a reduction to 10% or lower, indicating expectations of cautious monetary easing.
Oil price forecasts also reflect continued global uncertainty, with 59% of participants expecting crude oil prices to remain above $80 per barrel amid geopolitical tensions, while 41.2% believe prices will stay below that level. Overall, the survey points to sustained macroeconomic pressure, with expectations of rupee weakness, sticky inflation, and elevated global oil prices shaping Pakistan’s near-term economic outlook.
