Petrol prices in Pakistan are expected to rise by around Rs. 4.75 per litre in the upcoming fuel price adjustment, while high-speed diesel prices are likely to remain largely unchanged, provided the government does not impose any additional petroleum levy.
According to internal estimates from the oil industry, petrol will likely see a noticeable increase in the next pricing cycle due to higher international market rates. The ex-refinery price of petrol is projected to climb from Rs. 270.03 per litre to Rs. 274.77 per litre.
The expected increase is mainly linked to a rise in the global Free on Board (FOB) price of petrol, which moved up from $139.03 per barrel to $143.01 per barrel during the review period. Although lower premiums and reduced incidental costs offered some relief, they were not enough to fully offset the increase. The removal of a previous adjustment by Pakistan State Oil worth Rs. 1.41 per litre also contributed to the higher projected price.
In contrast, high-speed diesel is expected to increase by only Rs. 0.20 per litre, taking its projected price from Rs. 334.74 to Rs. 334.93 per litre. Despite a significant rise in international diesel prices—from $160.41 per barrel to $172.99 per barrel—the impact was largely balanced out by a major reduction in customs duty and incidental charges.
Industry calculations suggest customs duty on diesel dropped by more than Rs. 20 per litre, helping keep domestic diesel prices relatively stable despite higher global oil rates.
The exchange rate remained mostly stable during the review period at around Rs. 278.9 against the US dollar, limiting its effect on fuel pricing.
Industry officials said petrol consumers are likely to feel the impact of rising global gasoline prices more directly, while diesel users may benefit from government policy measures that have reduced the effect of international market fluctuations. Final prices, however, will depend on the government’s decisions regarding taxes, levies, and any last-minute currency adjustments before the official announcement.
