The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected Pakistan’s economy to grow by 3.5 percent in fiscal year 2026-27, below the federal government’s 4 percent growth target, suggesting the country is unlikely to meet its official economic expansion goal despite signs of recovery.
In its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) Update, released on Wednesday, the IMF maintained its growth forecast of 3.6 percent for fiscal year 2025-26, unchanged from its April 2026 outlook.
According to the report, Pakistan’s economy grew by 3.2 percent in 2025 and is expected to expand to 3.6 percent in 2026 before easing slightly to 3.5 percent in 2027.
The IMF also retained its global growth forecasts, projecting the world economy to expand by 3.0 percent in 2026 and 3.4 percent in 2027, with no significant revisions from its previous assessment.
The report noted that global economic conditions remain uneven across regions. Ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on energy-importing and vulnerable economies, while increased investment in artificial intelligence is boosting growth in countries linked to the global technology supply chain.
Although global inflationary pressures have eased compared to previous years, the IMF warned that the disinflation process has slowed. It also highlighted geopolitical conflicts and potential financial market volatility as key risks to the global outlook, urging governments to preserve price stability, rebuild fiscal buffers, and strengthen economic resilience.
