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Inflation in Pakistan Could Average 33% in First Half of 2023

Despite ongoing discussions between Pakistan and the IMF, it is highly unlikely that an IMF bailout alone will be sufficient to get the country’s economy back on track. Instead, what is needed is persistent and sound economic management. Senior economist Katrina Ell of Moody’s Analytics emphasized this point, stating that while an IMF bailout may help to alleviate Pakistan’s liquidity stresses, it is not a comprehensive solution to the country’s economic woes.

Inflation is expected to remain high, with an average of 33 percent projected for the remainder of the financial year 2022-23. This means that the cost of goods and services will continue to rise, making it more difficult for individuals and families to make ends meet.

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Furthermore, the IMF funding is expected to lead to further economic austerity measures, including higher taxes, inflation, and power tariff hikes. This will inevitably affect the poor in the country, worsening the already difficult economic situation for those who are most vulnerable.

Despite the challenges ahead, Pakistan is continuing discussions with the IMF in hopes of unlocking critical funding to keep the country afloat. The talks are focused on reaching an agreement on a reform agenda under the country’s $6.5 billion bailout package, which initially began in 2019. If a deal is reached on the 9th Review of the program, it could unlock more than $1.1 billion in funding.

While the IMF bailout may provide some relief to Pakistan’s economic challenges, it is not a comprehensive solution. Sound economic management, in addition to other measures, is needed to get the country’s economy back on track. Unfortunately, the funding from the IMF, while crucial for alleviating liquidity stresses, is also expected to lead to further economic austerity, worsening the situation for the poor.

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