A new report by HFI Research says the global oil market may stay under heavy pressure for months even if a peace deal is reached, because supply disruptions and shipping delays are still limiting available crude.
The firm said the market has already passed a “breaking point,” with an estimated 11 to 13 million barrels per day of supply outages. According to the report, this shortage is likely to appear through lower crude storage, falling fuel inventories, or weaker demand caused by high prices.
Even if an immediate ceasefire happens, HFI says recovery will be slow because around 160 million barrels of oil remain in floating storage and may take 30 to 40 days to reach shore, followed by more delays for tanker turnaround.
The report also noted that around 70 very large crude carriers are tied up in U.S. export routes to Asia, creating long shipping cycles and reducing available tanker capacity for Middle East routes.
In addition, global refinery outages are estimated at more than 5 million barrels per day, including around 3 million barrels per day in the Middle East, which is tightening fuel supply further.
HFI expects global inventories to continue falling and warned that even reopening the Strait of Hormuz would not immediately solve the problem because shipping systems need time to normalize.
The firm added that only major demand destruction or strong government intervention, such as export restrictions, may help stabilize oil markets under current conditions.
